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How to use solver to run Monte Carlo Simulation for this question

  1. #1
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    How to use solver to run Monte Carlo Simulation for this question

    The probability of a certain medical test being positive is 90%, if a
    patient has disease D. 1% of the population have the disease, and the
    test records a false positive 5% of the time. If you receive a positive
    test, what is your probability of having D?

    I know how to answer it by traditional Bayesian fomula. My question is how to use Excel Solver to run Monte Carlo simulation to solve this problem. Please be as specific as possible(what Excel Formula should I use, etc). Thank you for your help!!

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    Re: How to use solver to run Monte Carlo Simulation for this question

    I'm not sure Solver can really run Monte Carlo type simulations. Excel 2010 and later have two basic algorithms available -- GRG non-linear (As I understand, an extension of the Newton Raphson method into multiple dimensions) and an Evolutionary type algorithm. I'm not familiar enough with EA type algorithms to know if and how they could be adapted to simulate a Monte Carlo type algorithm, but it seems possible. I don't know if anyone on here has used Solver for Monte Carlo type work. Those that have done Monte Carlo simulations in Excel have usually reported using a different application/add-in (Crystal Ball or something like that was the application, wasn't it?).

    I realize this isn't very helpful, but it will bump your post back to the top, perhaps prompt additional research you can do, and perhaps prompt someone else more familiar with running Monte Carlo simulations in Excel to discuss how they have done it.
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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