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Help with forecasting

  1. #1
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    Help with forecasting

    I need help trying to forecast items we sell. Our business is mostly seasonal, we peak in early spring summer and fall off during the winter months. Item K is newer and starting to sell better each month but items N-Q are old items that follow the seasonal trend. Its these newer items that is giving me trouble because I can't base the forecast off of LY sales.

    I was hoping the forecast or trend formulas would work but I could not get it to work for me.

    Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
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    Re: Help with forecasting

    I was able to get forecast to work, however you may want to look into weighted trends as it seems certain time periods correspond to higher sales (as you mentioned).

    Hope this helps!
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    Re: Help with forecasting

    Thanks for your help on this. I see that the formula sort of smooths everything out without the monthly seasonal highs and lows, which would not be very accurate. You mentioned looking into weighted trends, which I think would help here. I'll start doing some research on this site and by google but if anyone else here has ideas how to implement the trends with forecasts, let me know.

    Thanks for your help!

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    Re: Help with forecasting

    A weighted moving average may be what you want then. Have a look here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZsrkI0OsEw

    Albeit the guy in the video is doing his average over a 3 month period, you can alter your data to suit your needs.

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