Roulette Validation

[Seafreight Discounte]

Hello everyone,

I am looking for some help with creating an excell sheet about something interesting. I have met someone who told me the following
story.

He mentioned that the probability distribution of unique numbers in 10 consecutive spins
based on 10,000 simulations would look like below:

Unique Numbers Probability
1 0%
2 0%
3 0%
4 0%
5 0%
6 1%
7 6%
8 24%
9 42%
10 27%

Now if you ask me this looks like candy for a child. This actually means that if you bet on the last 10 numbers that came
you'll win 73% of the time which means out of 100 spins you'll loose 27 times 10 chips which is 270 and you'll win 73 times 26 chips which is 1898 chips.

I am looking for someone who can help me build an excell sheet who can generate thousands of spins to see the actual results based on chip growth etc.

Is there someone who is interested in doing this with me?

We can chat through skype.

[Tony Valko]

Sounds interesting.

I'm a big Roulette player!

My strategy....

Make 1 bet of $100 each on 30 numbers.

Collect your $500 winnings then LEAVE. Do this 3-4 times a week!

[Seafreight Discounte]

Can you help me create the sheet so we can see long term validity?

[FDibbins]

LOL Tony, but you failed to specify for how many weeks?

[shg]

Do I interpret the table to mean that in 10 consecutive spins, you would see 10 distinct (not unique) numbers 27% of the time? And 9 distinct numbers (meaning there is one pair) 42% of the time?

And based on watching 10 spins, your strategy would be ... what?

[Seafreight Discounte]

Let me explain in more details.

The person said that when you spin 10 times in a row, you'll see 10 different numbers 27% of the times you run this serie. But you'll also see
9 different numbers and one copy or more of a number 73% of the times you run the serie.

Do you understand what I mean.

I think this could be interesting!

[Seafreight Discounte]

You have it right SHG. I read it wrong.

[Seafreight Discounte]

And based on this data my game would always be bet the last 10 different numbers. When there are equal numbers I just play the last 10.

If the following numbers come:

10
14
17
14
14
28
7
10
12
13
19
0
1

This are 10 numbers.

When loosing I would lose 10 chips and when winning I would gain 26 chips.

Who can help me build the sheet so we can run it on a larger scale to validate it.

[Tony Valko]

I'm not a math/stats person!

Generating 10k random numbers is easy but I don't know what this means or how you would calculate that.

Unique Numbers Probability
1 0%
2 0%
3 0%
4 0%
5 0%
6 1%
7 6%
8 24%
9 42%
10 27%

[shg]

The calculation just tells you the probablility distribution of distinct numbers. It says nothing about what's coming up next.

[Seafreight Discounte]

Hahaha ok, me too so we need a math guy

[Seafreight Discounte]

My strategy is look at the board and play the last different numbers that came and keep playing the last 10 different numbers. If the numbers
are correct I must be ahead 73% of the time.

Your basically playing proportional probabilities combined with the chaos theory.

[MrShorty]

A quick "roulette simulation excel" google search found this page: http://gamblingmath.blogspot.com/201...-in-excel.html See if that helps.

[shg]

I don't think you're going to get much traction with your question, for the same reason that the US Patent office specifically disallows claims for perpetual motion machines; the answer is known beforehand.

[Seafreight Discounte]

Basically it says a lot about the future. Basically it says that when running thousands of spins the chance that you win is this much percentage since percentages from the past don't change in the future unless something happens to the wheel right.

Does no one see this?

[shg]

The chances of flipping three heads in a row on a fair coin are 1/8. By your logic, you wait until someone flips two heads, then bet on tails, expecting there is only a 1/8 chance of getting heads again.