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Random Negative Returns

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    Random Negative Returns

    I am trying to model stock portfolio return in a retirement account over 20 years. I am using a random number generator to create potential returns in various years as a percentage increase from one year to another.
    That is working well, but we all know that some years the equity markets go negative.
    How can I create a model that randomly coverts my net calculation expressed as a percentage to a negative randomly in the 20 year range?

    Thank you in advance

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    Re: Random Negative Returns

    What kind of random distribution are you wanting to use? How often should it go negative? When it is negative, what range do you want the random number to be within? Same questions for positive. Ultimately the answer to your question is to define what kind of "distribution" you expect from your random number and build your random number generator to match that distribution.

    Something as simple as =RAND()-0.5 will return a random uniformly distributed number between -0.5 and +0.5. Roughly half the time it will be negative and half the time it will be positive. That's probably not exactly what you want, but that might make a good starting point.
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
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    Re: Random Negative Returns

    Perhaps add a mutiplier to the end of yout formula. e.g

    Formula: copy to clipboard
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    Of course being a random number there is no guarantee that any of the 20 years will be negative. And of course there may be more than one negative

    A workaround to that would be to hold that random number formula on a helper row and point to the helper row for the multiplicand, and then pick pick one of the 20 years net return formulae and instead of pointing to the helper row make the mutiplicand

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    If non of the helper row cells are 0 this will force the chosen formula to be negative.
    Strictly speaking I suppose that since you are now forcing a negative result and only randomly generating 19 numbers you should perhaps change the RANDBETWEEN to RANDBETWEEN(1,19)....or should that perhaos be between 1,21 since you are guaranteed at least one negative. (it's getting late here and my brain is closing down for the night......
    Last edited by Richard Buttrey; 11-30-2018 at 07:23 PM.
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    Re: Random Negative Returns

    Well, currently, I am tuning the formula so that percentage returns less than 2% are netted to Zero.
    I am using he following formula

    =IF(RAND()<=0.2,0,RANDBETWEEN(200,999)/10000)
    Seeing as we are trying fo lower returns, I could... change that 200 to the number 1, just to get a full range of positive returns between 0 and 10%
    Its not elegant, but it works.
    I think I would like to try to make the returns negative maybe 35% of the time. Can that be done?

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    Re: Random Negative Returns

    Yes just adapt the formulaI gave you

    To obtain an average of 35% of returns being negative add the multiplicand at the end

    your_formula*IF(RANDBETWEEN(1,100)<=35,-1,1)

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