How to Predict tomorrows price

Hi,
I have got a task which I cant figure out. I want to build a prediction model if we should buy stocks or not. And by using an external parameter (demand from customer on the whole market in our area which we get daily) I want to predict if the stock price tomorrow goes up or down.

I have columns with:
Daily prices for last 10 months.
The price change per day in %
The price change per day in $
Customer Ratio (The variable Im suppose use to predict with)


I want excel by the end of each day to look at the daily %change and on the customer ratio, and give me a signal if I should "Buy / No buy" TOMORROW (not the same day since it just closed). We always sell after 24 hours if excel doesnt tell us otherwise.


a) Maximize the profit
b) Keep the number of "loss-days" to a minimum (I.e control the risk!)
b) What threshold should be used on the customer ratio? I.e when is it good to buy or not?
c) What should the %-change be?

For example...I want to be able to say:
Okey if the customer ratio is below 4 and the price went up 5$ yesterday, we should buy today.

I CANT FIGURE IT OUT!

See attached excelfile. But I think I have done the whole solution in the wrong way. Maybe SOLVER Or Regression analysis is the way to go, but Im not sure.

Skärmklipp.PNG

Will you please attach a sample Excel workbook? We are not able to work with or manipulate a picture of one and nobody wants to have to recreate your data from scratch.

1. Make sure that your sample data are REPRESENTATIVE of your real data. The use of unrepresentative data is very frustrating and can lead to long delays in reaching a solution.

2. Make sure that your desired results are also shown (mock up the results manually).

3. Make sure that all confidential data is removed or replaced with dummy data first (e.g. names, addresses, E-mails, etc.).

4. Try to avoid using merged cells as they cause lots of problems.

Unfortunately the attachment icon doesn't work at the moment, so to attach an Excel file you have to do the following: just before posting, scroll down to Go Advanced and then scroll down to Manage Attachments. Now follow the instructions at the top of that screen.

Please pay particular attention to point 2 (above): without an idea of your intended outcomes, it is often very difficult to offer appropriate advice.

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