Obtaining Probability Percentage, using historic form

Hi There,

I'm trying to obtain a percentage likelihood of a driver qualifying in a certain position, based on an average of their previous qualifying positions.

As you'll see from the attached, I'm currently using the POISSON.DIST to obtain the percentage likelihood, however I don't believe it's giving me the correct percentage. The lower down the positions are, the percentage likelihood drops.

Has anyone used a successful formula to obtain this result?

Many Thanks,