Finding ranges with non-identical probabilities

[tfeely]

I'm trying to find the probability of a certain range in a number of trials happening, but the percentage chance of each trial happening is not identical. To further articulate, I'll use a simplified example of what I'm working with, which is basketball games. Let's say a team has 4 games scheduled, and the chances of them winning each are 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%. Using Excel, how would I calculate the probability of them winning only 3 of those games, or only 2 of those games? Thank you in advance.

[Richard Buttrey]

Hi and welcome to the forum.

Ah, the notorious area of statistical probabilities. I'll put my feet in the water and suggest the attached is the 'solution', but wait for the inevitable different views to pop up

For a more generalised solution it will probably be easier to use VBA to generate the various permutations and calculations required since the number of permutations will obviously vary.