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Should I use TREND or LINEST to forecast sales data?

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    Cool Should I use TREND or LINEST to forecast sales data?

    I have 24 months of sales data for 50 territories.

    I want to forecast data for each territory for the next 12 months.

    The sales data can go up and down each month (20% either way) but generally the sales are increasing on all territories.

    Please could somebody:
    a) In simple terms explain the difference between TREND and LINEST functions
    b) Advise as to which function should give the most accurate forecast.

    Many thanks for any support

    Kev

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    Re: Should I use TREND or LINEST to forecast sales data?

    At their core, TREND() and LINEST() are the same function -- they both perform a linear regression on the input data.

    The LINEST() function performs the regression, returns the slope(s) and intercept for the linear regression, and can also return additional statistics (standard error for each slope, standard error for y, etc.) http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/ex...005209155.aspx

    The TREND() function performs the same regression, computes a slope and intercept (but does not return these to the spreadsheet), then, using the new_x parameter, calculates the y value (in statistics text, this is often referred to as y-hat) corresponding to new_x. http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/ma...081.aspx?CTT=1

    In my own spreadsheets, I generally prefer to use the LINEST() function, because, most of the time, I want to actually see the calculated slope and intercept. I can then calculate as many y-hat's as I have new_x's if I want. If I have a lot of new_x's/y-hat combinations to calculate, I expect there might be a slight performance advantage to using LINEST() over TREND(), because Excel only needs to perform the regression once (for the single LINEST function) rather than performing the regression multiple times (once for each instance of the TREND() function).

    In the end, the most important consideration for whether to use LINEST() or TREND() is whether or not you need to actually see the slope and intercept computed for the regression. If you need/want to see the slope/intercept values, use LINEST(). If you have absolutely no need to see slope/intercept, the TREND() is a suitable function.
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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    Re: Should I use TREND or LINEST to forecast sales data?

    Hi MrShorty

    Thank you very much for your answer.

    I think I will stick with the TREND formula as the worksheet isn't large enough to worry about performance issues and I don't need details of the slope and intercept.

    Best Wishes

    Kev

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