Excel Regression Analysis - P values and R squared

[steg14]

Hi,

I would like to know if the coefficient of an independent variable is still relevant if the R-squared is low (assuming the p-value for the independent variable is less than 0.05).

For example, assume I have ice cream sales as my dependent variable and GDP as my independent variable. If I run a regression analysis the R-squared will be very low (say 0.01), because clearly there are other factors that will explain ice cream sales, but the GDP p value is significant (i.e. <0.05) and the coefficient is 0.0001. Can I still conclude from this regression that for every $1 increase in GDP, ice cream sales will increase by 0.0001?

Many thanks in advance.

[MrShorty]

That is probably more of a statistics question rather than an Excel question, and I am not sure if we have anyone here who is enough of a statistician to provide a good answer for that. I expect that there are standard statistical tests for significance of an independent variable, but i am not familiar with those tests.

If you are familiar with those tests and can explain them to us, I expect we will be able to help you program those tests in Excel. If you are not familiar with those tests, then I would suggest that you put this question to someone with a more in depth statistical background. Once you understand how to perform the test, come back here and we can help you program it in Excel.