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Darts Tournament Sim

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    Darts Tournament Sim

    Hey guys, i can't seem to find an answer anywhere so here's hoping someone here can help. Bear with me here - this is tricky.

    So here is the problem in few parts:

    I have 128 players in a darts comp in a simple knock-out - winner advances to next round. I want to simulate these matches and automatically populate a bracket with a simple button click - i've seen other sports simulations done like this but don't have a clue what is needed.

    The first match is first to 5, second is first to 7 - each of the 7 matches increasing in games with the final being first to 17. (at 5-5 or 7-7 etc, there would be a tie breaker to decide the winner.)

    Next is the problem of seedings - in the first round, it would be seeded so the player ranked number 1 would play the player ranked 128, 2 would play 127 etc. These players would be pulled from a ranking table. Obviously the chance of the first seed losing to a 128 seed is slim BUT there should still be a chance.

    The winner of the tournament would get 25 points, 2nd - 18, Semi finalists 12, Quarter finalists - 8, last sixteen - 6, third round - 4, Second round 2, First round defeat - 1 point. These points would feed into the rankings table and subsequently create rank and therefore potentially change seedings for future matches.

    How would I go about creating this and what would I need in terms of data to start?

    The basic simulation is the most important thing here but if anyone can help with any of it would be great

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    Re: Darts Tournament Sim

    I am certainly no expert on this kind of simulation. It seems to me that the heart and soul of simulating the tournament is how will you simulate a match.

    I could see using some kind of "ELO" rating system, where each player in the tournament has a rating which will determine how likely player A will defeat player B. I won't go into the details of an ELO rating system, but there are lots of sites on the internet (including Wikipedia) that describe ELO rating systems. Once you have expressions for the probability that A will defeat B, then your spreadsheet/program simply needs to select random numbers/results based on those probabilities.

    Another approach could be to simulate scores. If you have some idea/distribution of a player's total score (or how many throws it will each player to reach a certain score or whatever), then you can use that randomly play each match in the spreadsheet.

    Once you have a method of generating these distributions and random match results based on these distributions, then the rest of simulating the tournament should be simple "bean counting" -- keeping track of wins/losses, scores, rankings, etc.

    Working with these kinds of distributions and estimations is certainly above basic statistics. Can we assume you understand the statistics well enough to begin developing this? I would suggest that this kind of open ended "how to simulate a tournament" is a bit too broad and complex to tackle in an internet forum. If you can find the parts that you know how to do, then ask more narrow questions about the specific steps that you are unfamiliar with, then we will be in a better position to help.
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrShorty View Post
    I am certainly no expert on this kind of simulation. It seems to me that the heart and soul of simulating the tournament is how will you simulate a match.

    I could see using some kind of "ELO" rating system, where each player in the tournament has a rating which will determine how likely player A will defeat player B. I won't go into the details of an ELO rating system, but there are lots of sites on the internet (including Wikipedia) that describe ELO rating systems. Once you have expressions for the probability that A will defeat B, then your spreadsheet/program simply needs to select random numbers/results based on those probabilities.

    Another approach could be to simulate scores. If you have some idea/distribution of a player's total score (or how many throws it will each player to reach a certain score or whatever), then you can use that randomly play each match in the spreadsheet.

    Once you have a method of generating these distributions and random match results based on these distributions, then the rest of simulating the tournament should be simple "bean counting" -- keeping track of wins/losses, scores, rankings, etc.

    Working with these kinds of distributions and estimations is certainly above basic statistics. Can we assume you understand the statistics well enough to begin developing this? I would suggest that this kind of open ended "how to simulate a tournament" is a bit too broad and complex to tackle in an internet forum. If you can find the parts that you know how to do, then ask more narrow questions about the specific steps that you are unfamiliar with, then we will be in a better position to help.
    Thanks for the reply. This is certainly a great start to get me thinking about next steps. I appreciate the broadness of the post but without a clue of how to even start the broadness would have to do!

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    Re: Darts Tournament Sim

    Willem
    English is not my native language sorry for errors
    Please correct me if I'm completely wrong

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