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help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

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    help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    hi. i've uploaded a spreadsheet with my problem. any help would be appreciated.

    things that would be helpful to know
    - is it a simulation i need to create?
    - if so which one? is it montecarlo?
    - is there a choice of options to solve this
    - basically anything that might be helpful to get me going in the right direction

    any links to any materials that would help me understand how to make this or improve my understanding of the area would be great

    the model im trying to create will be bigger than this and more complex but i'm trying to start small as it may be more achivable

    let me know if anything unclear and i will try to explain better or in more detail.

    if anyone would like to take over my project either partially or fully for compensation that would be great too. give me an idea of the points needed for the part i'm stuck on and we can set something up

    thanks in advance for any help
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    Last edited by maxpower2; 03-22-2018 at 06:48 PM.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I'm not sure what your intended final product should look like, but I started by calculating the expected return for each fighter using:

    =M13*E13+N13*F13

    I then made a fighter matrix in P11:AC24 using the following formula in R13, filled down and right:

    =IF(R11=P13,0,INDEX($G$13:$G$24,MATCH($P13,$D$13:$D$24,0))+INDEX($G$13:$G$24,MATCH(R$11,$D$13:$D$24,0)))

    This matrix returns the expected point value of selecting the fighters from each axis together. We use those values to make the magic happen in H13, where we calculate the best possible pairing to go with each fighter that still fits under the salary cap in B11. For example, H13 will give me Alan's expected points added to the maximum possible from any two other fighters that would still fit under 25000-Alan's Cost. The formula below goes in H13 and should be array-confirmed with Ctrl + Shift + Enter instead of Enter:

    =G13+MAX((($Q$13:$Q$24)+($R$12:$AC$12)<=$B$11-B13)*($P$13:$P$24<>$D13)*($R$11:$AC$11<>$D13)*($R$13:$AC$24))

    Fill down for all fighters. This column shows the highest affordable expected point total for a trio that includes the fighter in that row. The very best trio will have the highest score and appear three times. I used conditional formatting to highlight them, but you could also just eyeball the results. Take a look at the attachment to see if works and makes sense:
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    hi cantosh. thanks for looking and taking the time to answer. unfortunately the result is a bit different to the one i'm after. getting the maximum ev doesn't work for this problem as it doesn't take everything we need into account. this method will give us the best 3 to pick for the highest average score but is not the method to see who wins most often. we can imagine a scenario where the highest average never wins the top score just consistently places high. the result you gave is actually useful but in a different variation of the game i'm playing

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    Thanks for the rep! Can you clarify what you mean here:

    this method will give us the best 3 to pick for the highest average score but is not the method to see who wins most often.
    The expected values shown in column G currently take into account the likelihood of victory. Column G indicates what the expected avg. return would be if the fight were to be simulated 100, 1000, 10000, etc. times based on the win/loss values in E and F and the win probabilities in M and N. Dave, for example, will earn 120 points 90% of the time and 40 points 10% of the time, for an average expected value of 112. If his win probability drops to 80%, the EV drops to 104. Win probability is included in the calculation, so I'm not understanding what's missing. Are you looking for results based on win probability alone, ignoring the point returns in E & F? Maybe it would help to see a few of the manually calculated results you're expecting?

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    the problem is that not all expected value is equal for the result im trying to get. lets say there were 200 fights instead of 6. it would take 3 big scores to win it. ev isn't quite right for finding out the 3 who win it most often. if you only score 70 for a win but scored 65 in a loss you would have a high ev but would be unlikely to win as the score wouldn't be high enough. a fighter with 130 for a win and 5 pts in a loss would have the same ev (if the probabilities made it so) but would have a far greater chance of being in the best 3. this is why i was wondering if it was a simulation that was needed. as i would really like to be able to get say the top 50 best combos in order. hopefully im not being to confusing here. sorry if i'm not explaining myself very well.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    So what you're actually looking for is the fighters' likelihood of finishing in the top 3 on any given night? Is that a better way to understand the issue?

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    this file shows the exact result format im after. im looking to add a standard deviation to the scores to help it become more accurate as well.
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    with regards to likelihood of finishing in the top 3; i have an inefficient method i use to do that currently. im really hoping to be able to get results like the table in my last post. otherwise i'm going to have to revisit the single fighter to finish in top 3 method and work on improving it.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    can anyone point me in the right direction for this please?

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    Can you share how you're calculating likelihood of a top 3 finish?

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    this is how i'm doing it currently. its not accurate or efficient or how i want to be doing it really. the target per $ im guessing. there is prob a better way to do this. in my example the target was set to low as they all hit easy except george. george is a good example of how winning percentage doesnt mean you are a good pick however. column f i use a normal distribution to estimate the probability. i used a sd of 10 in this example and the mean was the expected pts for win. the rest is some calculations i found on a webpage. will try to link it.

    http://onlinestatbook.com/2/calculat...rmal_dist.html
    https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-footba...-ownership-dfs
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I tried to solve this with probability alone, but probabilities are not my strength and I kept finding slight errors when I was trying to calculate the top 2 and top 3, so I went with a formula that simply creates all of the possible permutations, which makes the data pull pretty easy from there. Take a look at sheet3 in the attachment. A7:F70 contains all 64 possible results permutations using the following formula in A7, filled down and right:

    =IF(ROW(1:1)<=2^(MAX($6:$6)),INDEX(A$2:A$3,MOD(INT((ROW(1:1)-1)/(2^(MAX($6:$6)-A$6))),2)+1),"")

    The benefit to this approach is that if there are 7 fights, you can add the additional info in G1:G6 and fill the formula right and down to get 128 permutations, etc. for an 8th, 9th, Nth fight. The data from M7:S70 returns info on each permutation: odds of occurring, top 3, top 3 score, and cost, all using a few array formulas (confirmed with Ctrl + Shift + Enter):

    Odds in M7: =PRODUCT(IF(COUNTIF($A7:$F7,Sheet1!$N$13:$N$24)>0,Sheet1!$O$13:$O$24,1))

    Top 3 score in N7: =SUM((IF(COUNTIF($A7:$F7,Sheet1!$N$13:$N$24)>0,Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24+0.000001*ROW(Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24),0)>=LARGE(IF(COUNTIF($A7:$F7,Sheet1!$N$13:$N$24)>0,Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24+0.000001*ROW(Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24),0),3))*Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24)

    1st place in O7 (fill right for other places): =INDEX(Sheet1!$D$13:$D$24,SUM((IF(COUNTIF($A7:$F7,Sheet1!$N$13:$N$24)>0,Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24+0.000001*ROW(Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24),0)=LARGE(IF(COUNTIF($A7:$F7,Sheet1!$N$13:$N$24)>0,Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24+0.000001*ROW(Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24),0),COLUMN(A:A)))*(ROW(Sheet1!$E$13:$E$24)-ROW(Sheet1!$E$13)+1)))

    Finally, the table in U:Y ranks the top trios by odds, hopefully providing the final numbers you're seeking.

    Take a look to see if it proves helpful (and provides correct results). You can get rid of K27:Q33 on sheet1, that's left over from any earlier approach. The permutation method takes up a bit more space, but it also makes the probabilities much plainer to see.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    hey cantosh sorry for taking so long to get back to you. this looks great as far as i can see. that's the results as i needed them. really pleased . if this can be scaled up to a more complicated version it would be perfect. one thing that may cause a problem with this method ( im not sure struggling to picture in my head) is when a losing fighter would make the winning team due to the salary constraints. although it hasn't happened in this example it does happen. would you consider continuing to help? i'm more than happy to compensate you for your time spent so far and future time. what ever you consider a fair price.

    the complete version would need
    - up to 15 fights
    - is there a way to turn this into a simulation? one that can be run a large number of times. and incorporate some variance into the scores? for example currently we have george scoring 89. in the simulation his mean would be 89 but the range could be say 79 to 99.

    thanks for the help so far

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    Sorry for the slow response - my actual work has demanded my time recently. I'm still trying to sort out an approach that would account for the rare instances in which a loser might qualify as part of the affordable top 3, but I wanted to pass along what I have in case it helps with your progress.

    I've attached a sample workbook that shows how to stretch my work in post 12 to incorporate 15 fighters. It's not complicated - just fill the formulas further and modify the ranges - but each new fight doubles the number of possible outcomes (2^15 = 32,768), so the calculations grow exponentially, potentially leading to "not responding" hell when you recalculate. My advice would be to fill the formulas down in chunks and copy/pastevalues over the formulas as you go, leaving only what you need to fill down/right. In the attachment, I only filled in the first few rows to keep the calculations and file size manageable. Fill the formulas in A:Z down through row 32774 for complete results.

    The second attachment is a basic simulator. Use the following in A7:

    =INDEX(A$2:A$3,RANDBETWEEN(1,2))

    Fill right and down for as many simulations as you like. The formulas to the right should report the stats of the simulations, using the following in S7:

    =COUNTIFS($O$7:$O$7000,$O7,$P$7:$P$7000,$P7,$Q$7:$Q$7000,$Q7)/COUNTA($A$7:$A$7000)

    Change the 7000s in the formula to something bigger if you're planning to do more sims. The caveat to this approach is that RANDBETWEEN will re-randomize with every recalculation, so pastevalues over the formulas in A:F if you want to preserve a simulation record, or just be wary of the data changes with each recalculation. Sheet1 of this attachment also demonstrates how to employ a varying winning score for each fighter. G13:G24 will randomize the score within the parameters set. You can use the random values or enter actual value in that range.

    Hopefully this moves you in the right direction? My help is free of charge, but you can post in the site's commercial forum if you want to negotiate more attentive and concrete assistance. I can't access the commercial forum, but there are many (more) qualified experts who can. There might even be someone who can attack this with just a probabilistic approach. If you post there, be sure to include a link to this thread so folks can see what's transpired thus far and possibly avoid starting from scratch.

    If I make any progress with the 'losing fighter in the top 3' issue, I'll be sure to post an update here.
    Last edited by CAntosh; 04-13-2018 at 01:37 PM.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    hey cantosh. thank you so much. this is 100% in the right direction as far as i can tell. it all seems to make sense to me. my biggest concern is the scaling up making it more complicated. if it can be scaled up its perfect. i uploaded a spreedsheet with an example. is this to many outcomes for this method to work? if this many outcomes can be incorparated this would be my dream spreedsheet. i have tried to post this in the comercial forum but didnt have much sucess there yet.
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I'm not sure I'm clear on what's going on the latest attachment. Can you please clarify what I'm looking at? What do the r1, r2, etc. point totals indicate?

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    i have written a better explanation on the sheet. hopefull a bit more clear now.
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    would it be possible to use the rand function to pick the outcome of each fight? so randomly picking the outcome but still according to the probability of it happening? so if there were 10 fights rand would select 10 outcomes. this would give 20 results as each outcome gives a result for 2 fighters. we could completly ignore winning and losing and treat winning and losing scores the same (as just a number). then use the method you used previously which gave the percentages they finished first. if a random score using rand could also be appied to each fighter score between a range ( although if it could pick a number from a distribution such as the normal dist that would be perfect) rather than a set number it would be much more accurate. doing all this once would give a result. if this could be simulated a large number of times

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    http://www.mbaexcel.com/excel/how-to...bers-in-excel/ this is what i was talking about above. using this on the score given to a fighter so it would be a different for every simulation. the mean would be the predicted score we have been using up untill now. and standard diviation i could fill in by guessing. im going to have a go at this part myself. it seems to explain it well. each potential score(outcome) would need the option to have a different standard diviation.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I focused mostly on your instruction in posts 17 & 18 - I don't know if I'm seeing the plan for normalized distribution. If you have an actual probability figure for each result, I would think that those figures provide the best basis for predicting results. I might be missing something, though, my probability skills are rusty. Pushing forward with the previous posts, I built your table out to 4 fighters, created a helper table to reconfigure the probabilities, then used the following on sheet2 to create the simulator columns in A:M

    B1: =RAND()

    C1: =INDEX(PointsTable[[wins pts]:[loses r5]],MATCH(C$1,PointsTable[name],0),MATCH(B2,OFFSET(HelperProb[[#Headers],[wins pts]],MATCH(C$1,HelperProb[name],0),0,1,12)))+0.000001*COLUMN()

    D1: =INDEX(PointsTable[[wins pts]:[loses r5]],MATCH(D$1,PointsTable[name],0),IF(MATCH(B2,OFFSET(HelperProb[[#Headers],[wins pts]],MATCH(C$1,HelperProb[name],0),0,1,12))<7,MATCH(B2,OFFSET(HelperProb[[#Headers],[wins pts]],MATCH(C$1,HelperProb[name],0),0,1,12))+6,MATCH(B2,OFFSET(HelperProb[[#Headers],[wins pts]],MATCH(C$1,HelperProb[name],0),0,1,12))-6))+0.000001*COLUMN()

    Copy the set of three over for each fighter. To get the stats, I used the same setup in W:AF that I used in the previous versions. You can fill A:Z down as far as you want to return more simulations - there are 5000 in the attachment. The formulas in W:AF only look to row 7000, so change the 7000s to something bigger if you want more than 7000 sims. The benefit to this setup is that the helper table/columns let us avoid array formulas, which slowed the calculation times in previous versions. You can also build it out to more fighters pretty easily if you like the setup. Just add the fighters to the tables on sheet one, copy the three formulas in sheet2 into the empty/inserted columns for each new fighter, then adjust the references in the stats columns to account for the new fighter columns. A table lookup to incorporate fighter cost shouldn't be too hard to add, either. Give it a look to see if I'm close. Let me know if you spot any bugs or hit any hurdles.

    EDIT: I scaled it back to 2500 sims. 5000 was too big of a file for the forum's uploader. Fill A:Z down to get back to 5K.
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    Last edited by CAntosh; 05-04-2018 at 04:11 PM.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    the table that’s ended up green uses the normal dist now with standard div from A:6. the only problem is the simulation is using the same number for every simulation instead of a different one. I’m sure this is simple, but I haven’t worked it out yet. maybe selecting a number from a data set like on D:36. every cell from the green table would need its own standard div for the most accurate results rather than using a single number like A:6. ignore r7 on sheet 2. that was just something I used to check if we were getting approximately the right percentage of certain scores back. I can’t work out why columns o and p are not working yet on sheet. seems to have copied across ok and the right cells in the formula. the method is completely on the right track. this way works as far as I can tell, and I don’t anticipate anything that would cause a change of method. a possible problem was fights being scheduled for different number of rounds. but using probability of 0 for rounds that didn’t exist seemed to work fine. would you agree? sorry but I forgot to mention that in the final version we would be looking for the top 6 fighters. I’m guessing for AC:AF table you can list the top combinations but disqualify any combos that were above the allotted budget?

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I'm confused; is there an attachment that didn't post?

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    sorry cantosh im uploading the attachment here. looks like it was to big to upload. i have reduced the number of sims now. i added an extra column terry and tom that is working fine now. reducing the sims altered the results but ive not looked at that yet as i just wanted to re upload the file. i have uploaded a solver i used to find the best lineup given price. not sure if its relevant here or helps. but i noticed some problems with getting the results. sim 1 for example. gary eric and fred are the top lineup. but if they are over budget we dont have a line up to go to. there is no 2nd place team or 3rd place team within budget who we can class as the winner. not sure how to go about approaching this. my solver maximizes ac:3 within the player and salary budget.
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    Thanks for the attachments! Looking back at your post #21 alongside the attachment:

    1) I don't see what's wrong with columns O and P? they're pulling point values from the table in C3:P13 and rounding to the nearest whole number. Can you clarify what's off?

    2) You're right about setting probability to zero for rounds that don't exist.

    3) To expand to top 6, I don't see any issue with expanding W:Y and AD:AF on sheet two to 6 columns instead of 3.

    4) I think the easiest way to incorporate cost is to tack on a "top 3 (or 6) cost column next to AF (and/or AA) and then just filter or use an IF statement to show only those that are within the designated budget. You could even calculate each fighter's likelihood of being in a top 6 (in any position) and likelihood of being in a top 6 (in any position) under budget, based on the sims.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    1)i had the wrong name down on the sheet when i uploaded it and wrote that. got my tims and toms mixed up. corrected it when i re uploaded it. took me way to long to notice what was wrong.

    glad the top fighters under budget is doable. i was struggling to picture how to do it

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    1)i had the wrong name down on the sheet when i uploaded it and wrote that. got my tims and toms mixed up. corrected it when i re uploaded it. took me way to long to notice what was wrong.

    glad the top fighters under budget is doable. i was struggling to picture how to do it
    will try to change to top 6 myself tonight and take another go at getting the distribution numbers used

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    Just looking at you solver setup you can make it more easy to read the in-data by writing some of the constraint in a more condensed form i.e.

    Please Login or Register  to view this content.
    Alf

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    You are welcome and thanks for feedback and rep

    Alf

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    hi cantosh. v8 has the normal distribution stuff working(the first few rows are using diff rands until i decide which is best, but its basicaly fully working). i have added extra fighter up to 14. these added without trouble. i have also expanded (or tried to) the model to the top 6. BL:BQ seem to be working fine. i haven't been able to get BR or BS quite right as of yet tho.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    updated with salaries
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I moved the salaries off to the side (to incorporate some additions described below) and added a total cost column in CB using:

    =IF($BU2="","",IF(SUMPRODUCT(--($CG$2:$CG$27=$BV2:$CA2)*$CH$2:$CH$27)<=$CE$2,SUMPRODUCT(--($CG$2:$CG$27=$BV2:$CA2)*$CH$2:$CH$27),"OVER BUDGET"))

    It should spit back the total cost of that row's grouping or "OVER BUDGET" if they're over.

    I don't think there is an issue with BR:BS. I think with 14 fighters and all of the available score permutations, you're just not seeing any repeated sets of top six fighters in the same order. Each set shows up in an equal percentage of sims because each set shows up only once. If you add many more sims, you'll start to see variations in BR:BS.

    The problem I ran into is that adding thousands of sims is incredibly slow, so I wrote a macro to ease the process. It can be triggered with the "Add Simulations" button. Basically, it takes whatever formulas are in the last row (even if there's only one row), and fills those formulas down for as many rows/sims as you choose. Along the way, it copies/pastesvalues to ease the calculation time. It is designed to always leave the formulas in the last row so that you can drag them down further or run the procedure again to add more sims. It basically copy/pastesvalues 1000 rows at a time until it hits your selected total. For me, it starts to slow but still works when adding around 10000 sims at a time. It's very fast with only a few thousand.

    In the code below, I've noted that the DoEvents line is optional. Keeping it makes you a bit less likely to slip into "not responding" mode when running the procedure on big numbers, but it may run a touch more slowly. Leaving it active also means that the cursor will 'flash' while the program is running, which can help you track the program's process - each flash indicates 1000 rows/sims added.

    I also wrote a "reset sims" button that returns the formulas to row2 and deletes the other sim lines. Like the add sims procedure, it handles a few thousand quickly, but lags a bit with 7000+.

    You may notice that I created some named ranges for BL:BS to handle the variable number of fights/sims. All told, the sheet should be a bit easier to experiment with now. Give it a look!

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    thanks man. just taking a look now. does the best % take into account the permutations. for example would "wayne, george, conor, jake, eric,RAY" and "wayne, george,RAY, conor, jake, eric" be counted as the same? if not this would help with so many results coming back the same. if thats already incorporated then putting proper data in (rather than the random numbers) might give us some top 6 that we see more often.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    Everything I've done to this point looks at the top 6, in order, as a unique set. Using the same 6 names in a different order as you did in your example would be viewed as a different set. If your interest is: "Who is in the top 6, regardless of the order within the top 6", then I think my attachment below should cover that setup. There are some extra columns in use because I went to great lengths to avoid array formulas that might slow the calculation speed. BC:BP returns the top scorer from each fight ONLY if he was in the top 6. It should work even if the losing fighter is somehow also in the top 6. The formula there, filled right, is:

    =IF(MAX(INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1),INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1-1))>=LARGE($B2:$AQ2,6),INDEX($B$1:$AQ$1,MATCH(MAX(INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1),INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1-1)),$B2:$AQ2,0)),"")&" "&IF(MIN(INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1),INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1-1))>=LARGE($B2:$AQ2,6),INDEX($B$1:$AQ$1,MATCH(MIN(INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1),INDEX($B2:$AQ2,1,3*BC$1-1)),$B2:$AQ2,0)),"")

    BQ concatenates those names, in no particular order, and uses a tilde that makes them easier to separate later:
    =SUBSTITUTE(" "&TRIM(CONCATENATE(BC2," ",BD2," ",BE2," ",BF2," ",BG2," ",BH2," ",BI2," ",BJ2," ",BK2," ",BL2," ",BM2," ",BN2," ",BO2," ",BP2))&" "," ","~")

    BV:CA splits the top sets using the tildes:

    =IFERROR(MID(INDEX(Top6Concat,MATCH(SMALL(HelperColumn,ROW(1:1)),HelperColumn,0)),FIND("@",SUBSTITUTE(INDEX(Top6Concat,MATCH(SMALL(HelperColumn,ROW(1:1)),HelperColumn,0)),"~","@",BV$1))+1,FIND("@",SUBSTITUTE(INDEX(Top6Concat,MATCH(SMALL(HelperColumn,ROW(1:1)),HelperColumn,0)),"~","@",BV$1+1))-FIND("@",SUBSTITUTE(INDEX(Top6Concat,MATCH(SMALL(HelperColumn,ROW(1:1)),HelperColumn,0)),"~","@",BV$1))-1),"")

    The buttons work the same as before; the coding didn't require any changes. Take a look:
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    hey cantosh. thought you might of been gone for the weekend. i haven't checked the above yet. will in 5. there is something that im hoping isnt going to cause a big problem but worried may. to do with the validity of the results. the thing is we are currently ignoring "top 6 teams" that come in over budget. but we are not getting the 2nd best place team instead. the sim is kinda ignored. if sim 1 team comes in over we are just ignoring the whole sim. it is crucial tho that the next best team (that comes in under budget) is counted. if this is fixed we have a perfect working model. i believe it to be important as there will be teams that can come out on top of the pack when only within budget teams are considered. but these teams may never come out on top when up against unlimited budget teams. the over budget winner will be discarded and the within budget winner for the sim will not make it into the stats. i have some credits returned to me in the commercial section i could use if you think this is a good one to send over

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    i made a few tiny alterations. i used =max(0,) to remove the negative values caused by the normal dist. names in the points table are sent to the cells around the spreadsheet where needed so only need to be changed there. i have put some old data i found in the tables. points estimating, probability and the salary. so we are now getting the type of results we would expect for real. also expanded the rows down from 27 to 29 for the over budget formula. i had entered 2 few fighters. so just minor stuff but thought id give you the heads up in case it effected up any other formulas. all seems to be good tho. really like the add and reset buttons you have put in. works well. interested to hear your thoughts on the best team under budget stuff.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I think the "2nd" best option dilemma can be solved with what's there, unless I'm misunderstanding the goal. The simulations basically say, "Given these probabilities, let's simulate this fight night a few thousand times and see what results are the most common, and therefore the most likely". The most likely results, based on the sims, are then ranked in BU:CB. The top listed result in BU2:CB2 is the six man combo that appeared in the greatest number of sims. If that combination is overbudget in CB2, then we move to the next one, then the next, etc. The best choice according to the sims is the first combo listed that's under budget. In the picture that (hopefully) appears below, the first choice combo is over budget, but the 4th, 6th, and 9th combos listed all appear in the second highest number of sims, and they are all under budget. The odds, based on the sims, suggest that any of the three choices would give you joint-best odds of correctly picking the top 6. Obviously, the more sims you can do, the less likely you are to wind up with ties, but the snapshot below is from the attachment, which has only a small number of sims in order to fit the forum's file size limit. More sims should give you a more precise set of probability rankings in BU.

    BestSims.PNG

    Completely separate from what we've been doing, I added a column (Q) to your table on sheet1 that will return the % of sims in which each fighter appeared in the top 6. That info isn't used anywhere else yet, but it seems helpful to know. The formula is:
    =COUNTIF(Top6Concat,"*"&[@name]&"*")/COUNTA(Top6Concat)


    Take a look at BU:CB and see if my explanation for "2nd best" makes sense. Let me know if I'm misinterpreting what you're looking for.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    the countif addition is excellent and will be very useful. i was planning on trying to add that very feature myself this week. unfortunately there is a big difference in the quality of data from not getting a best under budget team from each sim. most of the best teams every week will be from teams that are over budget. if i make some numbers up to try and explain. lets say the best over budget team gets around 800 points each sim. the best under budget team may be averaging around 600. in our results we are only getting the under budget teams that on rare occasions have the potential to drop a huge score. these teams are the ones that can break 800 points the most often. what we are after tho is the team that hits the 600 mark the most consistently. there will just be too many teams that can consistently hit 600 points (or whatever it took to see off the under budget teams) but that dont have the potential for the huge scores. these team just will not show up in our data. in percentage terms we are getting the best under budget team that wins the most sims hitting 800 pts. rather than the under budget team that hit 600 pts in the most sims. there could be a team that wins 10% of the time that we miss as it just doesn't have the make up to rack up a big score that can beat on over budget massive score. sorry for the muddled explanation. will try again if its not clear. the results are still helpful and there is information to be taken away from them but we have just measured who hits 800 the most rather than 600.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    a link to a new thread i started for potential ways to help make the sim

    https://www.excelforum.com/excel-gen...lp-needed.html

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    The solver solution in your new thread would be a good one if you can get it working. My solver expertise is limited, so hopefully Alf can help you see if there's a viable path there. The number of possible combos and the number of sims you're trying to do will certainly complicate things. I've been trying to develop a UDF that will return the top 6 while respecting the budget constraints. I thought I had it this afternoon, and it's working pretty well, but I don't think it's perfect and I don't know that I'll have time hunt for anomalies until next week. I figured I'd send what I have so you could take a look and weigh in. I moved the fighter costs to row 1 to simplify the code, then created a UDF called =MaxUnderBudget(fighter range - starting in column B, max budget cell, place (1 for the first fighter of the six, 2 for the 2nd, etc.)). For example, in BK3, filled right:

    =MaxUnderBudget($B3:$AQ3,$CE$2,BK$2)

    The UDF code is:

    Please Login or Register  to view this content.
    Feel free to test it out. As I said, it's good about being under budget, but I still want to do some testing to see how well it's returning the best 6. The logic is that if the top 6 are over budget, it tweaks the 6th to 7th, then 8th, etc until it finds a set that's under budget, then it shifts the 1st-5th in reverse order to see if it can do better. I don't think it's catching situations in which 1,2,3,5,6,7 might be better than 1,2,3,4,5,8. I'm trying to help it avoid looping through the thousands of permutations, and in doing so there might still be some cracks. I'll take a closer look next week. Be careful about adding too many sims at once. Because of the loops within the UDF, it doesn't calculate as quickly as other functions in large quantities.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    wicked. thanks cantosh. sounds good. will test it with the solver. i will be able to test individual rows with it. hopefully get the same. pretty sure the solvers right but not 100% so if there are differences when you look dont count on the solver.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    just thought id upload was helpful. couldn't remember if it was on the others
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    hi cantosh. there are a couple of things im hoping to adjust. for the normal dist for each score i needed to add some more rands. i have done this on rand sheet. wasnt quite random the way i was sharing the same rand for multiple things before. would you be able to add them to the simulation button please? i dont know if all these extra cells will cause speed problems? maybe its unnecessary and i could do it with the current lot by starting in a different place. i also made a mistake and need slots for 2 more matches, 4 fighters. this is defiantly the last time extra slots are needed i promise. there are contests where you take on 1, 3 10 or more opponents too. so i would enter a team of 6 players and each opponent would enter a team as well. for these a different type of team will win. im started trying to design another sim on sheet 4. x4:ac32 can be filled in manually to test how teams do against each other. the teams entered will be whatever teams we want to try out. this is kind of to experiment. maybe a team with the highest average score would be best to enter in a 10 team competition, maybe not. maybe a 30 team contest we would be better off entering the team that won sheet 2. any help with a formula for k15 and u15 would be great. i may be able to get these in the end from google or here i haven't put time into it yet. k1-u15 would need to be added to the sim too i guess. i started k14 to t14 with only 10 but there are occasions when 30 would be helpful so i need to move this around a bit.
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    Last edited by maxpower2; 05-25-2018 at 10:49 AM.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I'm not sure I'm getting all of the pieces of that last post, so let me try to sort them out:

    1) Adding the normal dist. adjustments - to be honest, I have paid no attention to the distribution/probability adjustments you've been making. I've just been making sure that the sims are copying down whatever formula you're using to adjust the points. You have a much firmer understanding of how you are utilizing that approach than I do, so I've been going with the changes you make. I don't know how scores are allotted for each possible outcome, so I'm not clear on why the NORMINV adjustments are necessary or what they do. In short, I don't yet grasp why Dave can't simply be assigned 112 points for a r1 victory. What is the NORMINV calculation providing? I can try to help in that regard, but you'll need to clarify what the adjustments are for, how they're supposed to work, and what new changes you're trying to add.

    2) Adding 2 more matches - shouldn't be hard, but we'll need to add the points, probability data, and costs for the new contenders to sheets one and two.

    3) Teams of opponents - This sounds like a brand new set of mechanics, but it's hard to say without a better understanding of how it works. What data will be available? What will the expected results look like? How does it relate to the results of the sims we've been doing (if it does)? Is it pulled from that data, or is it a different type of sim?

    4) Will extra cells cause speed problems? - Formula cells will cause speed problems. Volatile functions (e.g. OFFSET, INDIRECT, etc.) and large array functions will be far more problematic than others. We've used OFFSET and array formulas, which has made it slow to copy our formulas down to other sims- that's why I've tried to use helper columns to cut down on the arrays. It's also why I added the button to run sims so we can try to avoid overloading Excel's ability to recalculate. As you add new functions, try to avoid volatile and array functions where you can.

    It's a holiday weekend here in the states, so I might disappear for a bit, but I'm happy to help when I can next week if you can (separately) spell out the intent of the distribution stuff and how the team matches will work.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    1) the extra rands are not for any extra adjustments. its going to be left to work exactly the same. except im not going to reuse a rand result for more than 1 outcome. just selecting a different cell to use for rand. i was losing some randomness having 2 results tied to the same rand. so i was having pairs of random results always together. for example if a low rand number gave dave the win; having his (normaly dist random)score attached to it might always give dave a low score; having doms attached to it would also give dom a low score to. having there own rand would guarantee complete randomness.
    2) sorry i meant to say i would do the sheet 1 part of this

    3) use the same data from the sims you created to decide which team wins. its basically the same as the simulation we have been doing. except that instead of looking for the best team from the 100,000 combos we are just looking for the best team from the teams we enter. the teams entered are just all made up. systems could be tested with a variety of teams. the team with the highest ev or the team from our previous results could be tested against a varying number of teams of different make ups. the results could look like the results on page 2. even that is not necessary really. just a % where the team sheet is would be fine. we would obs have teams winning much higher % of times so the data out would look cleaner from lower samples. for a ten team game we would just have the % of wins for each team. interesting to see how our current sheet 2 winner stacks up against a lower number of opponents. (better to go with high average maybe here) we will see.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    extra players added with cost. players not linked to rand yet but they will later. just need to take a look at the method first.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I think I understand the issue you were having with the double-usage of the same random number in your NORMINV calculations. I don't think you need a new sheet, though. Generally, random numbers don't need to be given their own cells. The only reason I did so in columns B, E, H, etc. is because we had two different cells (C and D) that needed to pull info from the same random number (B). If you want an independent random number for the NORMINV probabilities, we can just replace the term that was previously linked to the existing random# cell with RAND(). So:

    =MAX(0,NORMINV(B3, INDEX(PointsTable[[wins pts]:[loses r5]],MATCH(C$2,PointsTable[name],0),MATCH(B3,OFFSET(HelperProb[[#Headers],[wins pts]],MATCH(C$2,HelperProb[name],0),0,1,12)))+0.000001*COLUMN(),Sheet1!$A$6))

    becomes

    =MAX(0,NORMINV(RAND(),INDEX(PointsTable[[wins pts]:[loses r5]],MATCH(C$2,PointsTable[name],0),MATCH(B3,OFFSET(HelperProb[[#Headers],[wins pts]],MATCH(C$2,HelperProb[name],0),0,1,12)))+0.000001*COLUMN(),Sheet1!$A$6))

    If that makes sense? It should render the "rand" sheet from your last attachment unnecessary.

    In the attachment, I adjusted BK:BP to include the new fighters, then I completely changed the formula in BQ to a straightforward but ugly formula that returns the top six from BK:BP in the order they're listed, NOT the order they finished. This allows us to view the top 6 as a group, regardless of how that group is ordered within the top 6. (e.g. {a,b,c,d,e,f} = {b,a,c,d,e,f}) We were working on that adjustment earlier, but seemed to get away from it. Putting this column back in place should make it much easier to calculate a team's score with the new totals you described in part 3) of post #44. If I'm understanding correctly, you can enter a combo of 6 names and just use COUNTIFS on BQ to see how many times they were the top 6, in any configuration. Is that what you're going for? If I'm off base, it would help to see what a (completely made up) set of expected results might look like.

    I also tweaked the formula in the top 10 listing to the right to a basic lookup since we're now just looking for the top sets of 6, regardless of the configuration within the top 6. This switch allows us to drop a few array formulas.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    i added some notes to new sim sheet. hopefully more clear. this extra sim thing is just me being greedy really. it will be extremely useful tho. it was just something that i hoped could be added with not too much extra work (as you have got all the simulations and numbers we would be using already there. hoping it was some sort of lookup that could find and add the numbers). that rand adjustment will make things easier. that whole rand sheet can go now.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    The 'teams' addition is doable, as I understand it, but it could add quite a bit of calculation time depending on how you want to integrate it with the existing setup. The attachment should demonstrate three different approaches.

    1) In E56, I've included the following formula:

    =SUMPRODUCT((Sheet2!$C3:$AW3)*(COUNTIF(OFFSET('new sim'!$X$3:$AC$3,E$55,0),Sheet2!$C$2:$AW$2)>0))

    This can be filled right for the other teams and down for the other sims. This will return each team's score for each sim. It also provides the winner using:

    =INDEX($E$55:$AH$55,MATCH(MAX($E56:$AH56),$E56:$AH56,0))

    These formulas can be filled down for each sim, or we can work them into the button. You'll get tons of data on your teams this way, but the flip side is that it will be a major drag on calculation times since you're adding these new sets of calculations for every row of simulations. Alternatively...

    2) In 'new sim' column AF, I added a formula to calculate the mean score for that team across all completed sims. This total is independent from process described above, as it pulls directly from the sheet2. The resulting data is less comprehensive than the method above, but it is far less taxing on Excel's resources. It uses a new named range and the following formula in AF4:

    =SUMPRODUCT((AllScores)*(COUNTIF($X4:$AC4,Sheet2!$C$2:$AW$2)>0))/(COUNTA(Sheet2!$B:$B)-2)

    3) In AG, you'll find an even simpler approach. I added a 'EV' column to the first table on sheet1 (column R). Using this column, we can calculate the average expected return for each team using the following in AG4:

    =SUMPRODUCT((PointsTable[EV])*(COUNTIF('new sim'!$X4:$AC4,PointsTable[name])>0))

    This total will be static - independent of any sims - but we should find that as more sims are added, the mean in AF should approach the expected mean in AG. Like the calculation in AF, this approach is much less of a calculation drain than process #1.

    Take a look, run a few sims, and let me know what you think.
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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    1 is great. does everything i wanted, v happy with it. with regards to the calculation times. sheet 2 would have sims added and calculated and we have our results. say 20000 or whatever then left alone. this is before any teams are entered in 'new sim sheet'. 'new sims sheet' can be left completely blank as its not relevant to the results we obtain on sheet 2. then with new sim sheet, ideally it would be possible to play around with different teams, adding extra teams or removing them. changing players around. just tinkering really to see outcomes of different setups. possibly a add simulations button would work? maybe not necessary. maybe there is a button in the options of excel i came across one day to stop calculations automatically. could be a way to stop it updating every time a player is changed and making it wait until all tinkering is done. as we are playing around with a maximum of 30 teams here so we should see results with far fewer sims. probably a range that is fine to just copy/paste to suit maybe. comparing 2 teams for example 100 sims would be more than enough. might be obvious after 20 sims. for 30 team i dont know but couple thousand may see some convergence in results. could be plenty, may not even need that many. options 2 and 3 dont quite measure the same thing but nice to leave them in if they dont use any resources. interesting values to see when entering teams and looking at results. option 1 is perfect tho. exact results im after and extremely useful. any performance increase is a bonus. the results are the main thing.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    Quote Originally Posted by maxpower2 View Post
    sheet 2 would have sims added and calculated and we have our results. say 20000 or whatever then left alone. this is before any teams are entered in 'new sim sheet'.
    This is a good plan - don't fill the formulas on 'new sim' down at all until you have all the sims you want on sheet2. You can also change calculations from automatic to manual under Options > Formulas, but be careful - we want the calculations to be automatic when the "add sims" button is pressed because it needs the formulas to calculate before it replaces the formulas with values. Give everything a try with the method you described above and see if the lag is reasonable.

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    Re: help creating a daily fantasy sports spreadsheet

    I've attached an attempt to modify the 'add sims' code to enable you to build some variation into the points returns for each result. Currently only Eric in E6 is set to vary, but it appears to be working? The code below contains both the old and new (experimental) variations. The tradeoff is that it will take longer to calculate the sims. I wouldn't advise doing more than 500 sims at once at first. Give it a try to see if it works as desired and moves at an acceptable speed:

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