probability to playoff game event

I don't know how helpful this will be but I feel that you would need to know how many matches each team won 2-0 and 2-1 as well as how many they lost 1-2 and 0-2.
In the attached I tried to work that out based on points.
I also filled columns C:G using formulas so that the only numbers needing to be input are in columns H:K.
Columns L:M show the best/worst the team could do points wise given the number of matches they have left to play out of 10.
If the worst a team could do was better than the best two other teams could do then the chance of that team making the playoff is 100%.
Conversely if the best a team could do was worse than the worst that six other teams could do then the chance is 0%.
I feel that knowing how you would assign percentages in between is beyond the realm of Excel, although there may be some contributors here whom could help in that regard.
Let us know if you have any questions.