Hi,
I'm looking to put together a worksheet to use in another workbook relating to when the first goal in a football game is scored. Using the negative binomial distribution function (e.g to get a probability of when a goal hasn't been scored) and means worked out from another worksheet (in the case of the attached I have just pasted the values in and divided by 92 - assuming one minute of extra time per half to get a mean per minute).
Working this through for Team A (as an example), I have the probabilities per minute of not scoring in Column B, the cumulative of this in Column D and when this exceeds 0.5 (e.g. it is now more likely that a goal has been scored than not scored), returning a GOAL value in column F. Now my query is how can I get this to return a 25 (e.g. from column A) in Cell H3 (e.g. the expected minute in which Team A will score their first goal). I'm sure that this would be possible with an IF formula but can't see a logical way of doing it.
Any advice would be appreciated.
P.S. One game means nothing I know - but in the case of this game, Team A scored after 31 minutes so I wasn't too far out.
First Goal Time Only Workup Book.xls
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