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Suggestions for Selecting Data Methods for a Forecasting Model

  1. #1
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    Suggestions for Selecting Data Methods for a Forecasting Model

    I have been asked to put together a somewhat flexible forecasting model.

    A very drafty version is attached. There are a bit less than 4800 data rows in the intact version. I've removed a lot of the years (only showing 2017-2020, original goes up to 2060) and races, etc... data for the draft version.

    The data rows represent the population in each year from 2017 through 2060 for various demographic group parameters.
    The 106 column headings: origin, race, ***, year, total_pop, pop_0 up to pop_100 (represent the number of people who have age 0 (just born) and up through being age 100 years old in that year).

    My challenge:
    Once the origin (Hispanic vs non-Hispanic or all), race (for now: all, black, white), *** (all, male, female), ages (this is another hard part!), launch year and # of years to forecast have been selected, the sheet needs to be populated with the right values from the data rows for continued use in the model.

    I am asking for suggestions as to how to move forward with getting the data assembled in a row for further use in the forecast model.

    I was thinking of somekind of vlookup and/or coupled with index/match but have also seen some suggestions for sql but I don't know sql and would like to avoid it. Some kind of pivot table also tugs at me but I've never felt warm and fuzzy to pivot tables but may be easiest/best solution?

    Selecting the ages is a bit of a challenge as sometimes the forecaster will want to use from birth to a certain age or from an age forward (say, 60 +) or in certain increments (every 5 or 10 years of age).

    Anyhow, any suggestions as to a relatively painless path forward are welcomed!

    Thanks in advance!

    Also posted at: http://www.ozgrid.com/forum/showthread.php?t=203605
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    Last edited by bob33; 04-03-2017 at 03:38 PM.

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    Re: Suggestions for Selecting Data Methods for a Forecasting Model

    I think a pivot table would be the fastest option but if you (and your users) are not familiar with them then it might be a bit of a battle to get them to use the tool properly / at all and you may not be able to be as flexible with your age selection as you need.

    An alternative is to use the auto-filter and set the filters of the first 4 columns base on the selected origin, race, ***, and launch year. That just leaves the ages to deal with, which could be done with some VBA to show/hide the columns in question. I also suggest replacing the list boxes and buttons etc at the bottom with some data validation cells at the top - see attached. I have set this up to enable users to specify ages in scope using a familiar syntax, which will be deciphered in the VBA code.

    I assume the outcome of this is a number - the population of the filtered selection. To confirm my understanding, is the answer with the following filters 5,321,731?

    Hispanic / White / Female and Year=2017, Forecast Years = 2 (which makes End Forecast 2018) and ages 5-10 only.

    If this sounds like a reasonable approach, let me know and I'll produce some code.
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Last edited by MatrixMan; 04-03-2017 at 12:29 PM. Reason: Attached file.
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    Re: Suggestions for Selecting Data Methods for a Forecasting Model

    Thanks all for the efforts!
    I have a similar solution that is non-array:
    =SUM(INDEX($D$4:$DC$4623,MATCH(B$4778,$D$4:$D$4623,0),D5):INDEX($D$4:$DC$4623,MATCH(B$4778,$D$4:$D$4623,0),E5))
    where d5 is lower age limit and e5 is upper age limit.

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