forecast out-of sample

[nadinemulder]

Dear,

I'm writing my thesis and I really have an important question. I want to know how you can easily calculated the following case/question:

To estimate the forecast values an initial base period is decided and only the next observation value is estimated. For example in this sample the initial base period is 48 months and start in 1990(M1) until 1994(M12). The first forecast value would be the value at date 1995(M1). Because it is a one-step ahead forecast one addition value at a time is added to the base period to calculate the next forecast value. so the second forecast is from 1990(m01) until 1995(m01) for the forecast for 1995(M02).. until the end.

I have one dependant variable and 10 dependant variables in my regression.

Thank you in advance.

[Roger Govier]

Hi Nadine

I don't know how to do you forecasting, but if it is a question of referring to a a moving set of data, then, assuming your 48 months of data are located in cells B2 to AW2

If you place your cursor in cell AX2 and define a named range
Name myData
Refers to B$2:AW$2

then using mydata in any forecasting formula whilst in cell AX2, will use your previous 48 months as the source data, and as you move the formula across the page, so it will refer to a "Shifting" range of 48 values.

I hope that this perhaps helps a little.
Good luck with the thesis.