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Generating a list of Random numbers of random length...

  1. #1
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    Generating a list of Random numbers of random length...

    I've started a project involving demand/capacity and waiting list modelling in the healthcare sector. The tool is going to be used by people who don't have a lot of Excel experience. The organisation doesn't have the technical resources to maintain anything that contains any complex VBA.

    First thing I'm doing is building forecasts of demand. There's a current pipeline of future demand scheduled in. That's not a problem. It's the future-future demand that I'm sort of struggling with. Writing it down helps.

    I suspect that demand obeys the Poisson distribution. You could see 0,1,2,3 etc patients turning up on a particular day.

    What I would like to do is create a refreshable list of the likes of -

    Day 1
    Day 1
    Day 2
    Day 4
    Day 4
    Day 4
    Day 6

    etc...

    controlled by random numbers vs the poisson distribution without resorting to code and without days that had no activity appearing. I have an inkling of how to do but...

  2. #2
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    Re: Generating a list of Random numbers of random length...

    Well excel has a RAND() and POISSON() function, It's not very clear exactly how your list should be created though.

  3. #3
    Forum Expert shg's Avatar
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    Re: Generating a list of Random numbers of random length...

    I'm not sure what the list represents -- the arrival date/time of patients?

    >> without resorting to code ...

    Are you hard over about that?

    >> ... and without days that had no activity appearing

    Then it would not follow a Poisson distribution, which always has a finite probability of 0.
    Entia non sunt multiplicanda sine necessitate

  4. #4
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    Re: Generating a list of Random numbers of random length...

    Yes, it's arrival dates. I don't have the granularity of data to model interarrival times - otherwise I'd use the Erlang distribution.

    The project will have to use some code but I want to use as little as possible. I've worked in environments where the use of VBA is expressly forbidden. This isn't one of them but there's not a lot of VBA expertise in the organisation.

  5. #5
    Forum Expert shg's Avatar
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    Re: Generating a list of Random numbers of random length...

    A
    B
    C
    D
    E
    F
    G
    1
    Avg/Day
    3
    2
    3
    Date
    # Pats
    # Pats
    Prob
    4
    09/19/2013
    4
    B4: =RandPois($B$1)
    0
    0.04979
    F4: =POISSON(E4, $B$1, FALSE)
    5
    09/20/2013
    2
    1
    0.14936
    6
    09/21/2013
    1
    2
    0.22404
    7
    09/22/2013
    2
    3
    0.22404
    8
    09/23/2013
    4
    4
    0.16803
    9
    09/24/2013
    4
    5
    0.10082
    10
    09/25/2013
    2
    6
    0.05041
    11
    09/26/2013
    3
    7
    0.02160
    12
    09/27/2013
    4
    8
    0.00810
    13
    09/28/2013
    4
    9
    0.00270
    14
    09/29/2013
    3
    10
    0.00081
    15
    09/30/2013
    3
    11
    0.00022
    16
    10/01/2013
    2
    12
    0.00006
    17
    10/02/2013
    1
    18
    10/03/2013
    2
    19
    10/04/2013
    3
    20
    10/05/2013
    1


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    Last edited by shg; 09-19-2013 at 12:14 PM.

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