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Blackjack Odds Generator

  1. #1
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    Blackjack Odds Generator

    I’ve started a fun Excel project: Blackjack Odds Generator.

    You’ve seen the blackjack charts that show you what to do if you have 6,6 and dealer shows a 4. I want to make a generator in Excel that allows you to see what choice you should make based on the odds.

    I’d also like to see the real odds—not just the recommended action Hit, Stand, Double, Split. I’d like to see how the odds change with 1 deck, 2, 4, 6, auto-shuffle, etc… I’d also like to see how the odds change when different rules are in play such as “Dealer hits soft 17”, “can split 1 time with Aces”, “Can split 2 times with Aces”, etc….

    The problem is, while my Excel skills rock, my stats do not. I vaguely remember “n choose k” binomial crap. I can even use PROB() function in Excel to some success.

    Any of you Stats geniuses want to walk through steps involved here with me? Respond to this post and let's see what ya got.

    Roger!

  2. #2
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    Re: Blackjack Odds Generator

    Hi Roger
    Not sure if you're still working on this, but here's an Excel Blackjack probability calculator that might help you on your way:
    http://xlcalibre.com/just-for-fun-bl...lity-in-excel/

  3. #3
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    Re: Blackjack Odds Generator

    Roger,

    I realize I'm replying to a very old post, but maybe you'll see this and you're still interested, and even if you're not, someone else in the future might see my reply and might benefit from my answer.

    Yes, I've seen those blackjack Basic Strategy charts. I think we all have. In fact, for many years I was somewhat of a blackjack "fan." I own more than 40 books on the subject!

    Anyway, many years ago I re-created those charts we all see in books. I did it through computer simulations. You don't have to know beans about "binomials" or the "PROB() function" you mentioned.

    I simply simulated a blackjack game, with all of the black rules, number of decks used, options, etc. I then set up each possible "hand" and ran millions of simulations with each hand.

    For example.... if a player has two 8s against a dealer's 10, you're supposed to split right? Why? Well, because the blackjack charts say so. Okay, but I wanted to prove that for myself. So I set up that exact "scenario"... splitting two 8s against a 10, and let the computer play just that hand millions of times. I kept track of the number of wins, losses, and ties, but more importantly, I also kept track of the amount of money won/lost.

    I then did the same thing with two 8s and instead of splitting I hit that hand. Finally, I took two 8s and stood with it. Again, each hand was simulated millions of times.

    It turns out (as I remember) that two 8s against a 10 is a losing hand. No matter what you do your end result is going to be negative. But SPLITTING the 8s loses LESS money than hitting or standing... and THAT'S why it's the recommended play.

    Alas, I no longer have that program. Again, this was many years ago when I wrote it. (And it wasn't written using Excel.) Someday when I'm bored I should re-write it, this time with Excel and VBA. Unfortunately, I no longer have much of an interest in blackjack... too many other subjects and hobbies keep me busy.

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