Monte Carlo Simulation

**germani40** · 06-16-2020, 04:37 PM

I created a Monte Carlo simulation for a sports league.

The singular simulation works perfectly fine on its own. The sim that the Monte Carlo sim is going to be based on.

In the singular sim

Team 1 wins 12
Team 2 wins 14
Team 3 wins 10
Team 4 wins 8
Team 5 wins 10
Team 6 wins 6

When I run the thousands of sims is where the issue comes up. Each individual one is fine. The issue I am having is, how do I get each sim to involve each team?

For example
In sim #1
Team 1 wins 13
Team 2 wins 7
Team 3 wins 13
Team 4 wins 8
Team 5 wins 11
Team 6 wins 10

Each individual win total is fine but when added up would not create a possible season. Numbers should always equal 60. So how do I get each line of the sim to account for what the other teams did?

I hope I explained that well enough. Please feel free to ask if it didnt make sense.

**MrShorty** · 06-16-2020, 04:58 PM

Not sure I fully understand what you are trying to do, but it reminded me of this discussion a few weeks ago: https://www.excelforum.com/excel-for...-data-set.html In this case, the OP gave a set of normalized percentages (so all of the percentages added up to 100%) and a target sum, then wanted integers that added up to that sum and closely matched the given percentages. User Joeu2004 proposed a solution that seemed to work. In your case, have your simulation generate a fraction of the 60 wins for each team rather than the actual number of wins, then use this solution to compute how many wins out of 60 that each team gets.

Ultimately, the question probably boils down to what kind of algorithm do you want to use to do this. If you have no idea what kind of algorithm to use, review the one from the previous discussion. If you had a different algorithm in mind, help us understand the algorithm, then we can help you program that algorithm into Excel.

Monte Carlo Simulation

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