Obtaining Probability Percentage, using historic form

[mblessing89]

Hi There,

I'm trying to obtain a percentage likelihood of a driver qualifying in a certain position, based on an average of their previous qualifying positions.

As you'll see from the attached, I'm currently using the POISSON.DIST to obtain the percentage likelihood, however I don't believe it's giving me the correct percentage. The lower down the positions are, the percentage likelihood drops.

Has anyone used a successful formula to obtain this result?

Many Thanks,

[davsth]

Why are you using a poison distribution? If there are 20 drivers the poison distribution will return some values > 20 so you will never sum a row to 100%
Driver 29 cumulatively only sums to 71% as there are values above 20, and 0!

You could just work out the actual % , in AP2
=COUNTIFS($B2:$AG2,AP$1,$B$1:$AG$1,"Quali")/COUNTIFS($B2:$AG2,"<>",$B$1:$AG$1,"Quali")

Although your sample is small, and some people will say qualify 2nd and 5th but never 3rd or 4th. And intuitively there would be a chance of this happening.