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Prediction Accuracy as a Percentage

  1. #1
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    Prediction Accuracy as a Percentage

    I realize this is simpler than most of the stuff here, but I would really appreciate any help with this.

    I'm trying to get a percentage of accuracy for column A.
    Column A is the predicted value (forecast), Column B is the actual value (the result), so how accurate was the Column A prediction?

    For example, two scenarios: let's say the forecast was 18 but the actual value was 15 (forecast higher). And the same forecast model also gave a forecast of 35 on another object, but the actual value was 40 (forecast lower). I want to combine the two forecasts of the same model and give the accuracy as a percentage out of 100%. Can anybody help me to come up with a single formula for this?

    I'm not a statistics guy - I've tried to google this but to no avail. Any help much appreciated!

  2. #2
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    Re: Prediction Accuracy as a Percentage

    This will give you accuracy of forecast (format as %age)

    =1-ABS(Forecast-Actual)/Actual

    I want to combine the two forecasts of the same model and give the accuracy as a percentage out of 100%.
    Not sure what you mean by this. What is your expected result?
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    Re: Prediction Accuracy as a Percentage

    That makes sense.

    In the first case it will give you 0,8 aka 80%, which means the prediction failed by 20% since the actual value come to only 15.
    In the second case it will give you 1,13 aka 113% which means the prediction surpassed the prediction by 13% since the actual value come to 40 instead of 35.

    If the prediction was 20 and the actual result 20 it will give you 1 - which means exact predicion.

    Nice feature. I can use this by myself.

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    Re: Prediction Accuracy as a Percentage

    Yeah it's like FCarv said.

    The formula works perfectly. I got close with my rudimentary knowledge of math but I didn't know about the ABT function. Thank you very much, this is very useful.

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