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Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

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    Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

    Hi All,

    I'm attempting to build a Monte Carlo simulation that simulates the potential prices for airline tickets. The model I've designed uses the Norm.Inv function where the mean is the average ticket price, the standard deviation is just an assumption of the spread, and the probability is RAND(). So =Norm.inv(Rand(),100,10) for example. This gives me a nice bell curve once repeated 1000 times or so.

    The problem is, airline prices are note equally distributed and tend to be positively skewed, i.e. there is higher probabilities that a lower price ticket will be sold rather than a higher one. How do I skew the distribution to reflect this? Am I using the correct distribution?

    What I would love is for the skew to be a variable input (one number) that I can change to see how the model is reacting to it.

    Thoughts? Comments?

    Thanks,

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    Re: Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

    Interesting question ...There is a great answer by Jackbean here....

    http://www.mrexcel.com/forum/excel-q...m-numbers.html
    Please consider adding a * if I helped.

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    Re: Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

    I think you could use UDF prepared by shg - see attached file.
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Best Regards,

    Kaper

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    Re: Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

    Kaper, do you know of any source that explains the different parameters?

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    Re: Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

    You may check the sources given in VBA code (have you seen them? - if not, press Alt+F11 to open VBA editor):

    http://azzalini.stat.unipd.it/SN/faq.html (algorithm)
    http://azzalini.stat.unipd.it/SN/Intro/intro.html (intro)

    As I mentioned, I used the code prepared few years ago by one of forum gurus: http://www.excelforum.com/members/60269.html and not analysed it in detail.

    Basically: fAlpha is some measure of skewness (but not skewness itself - play with fAlpha to see changes in G6 in attached file) positive alfa results in positive skewness
    fLocation - in case fAlpha =0 expected value. for fAlpha <>0 another measure of central tendency, but not E itself
    fScale - again for fAlpha =0 just standard deviation. For fAlpha <>0 some measure of dispersion.

    By the way
    Is eris_strategy = VooDoo33 or it is just a coincidence with Australia as location and recent version of Excel?

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    Re: Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

    Thanks Kapa. No idea who Voodoo3 is, just coincidence.

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    Re: Skewed Normal Distribution for Monte Carlo Simulations

    Then please observe http://www.excelforum.com/forum-rule...rum-rules.html
    Namely:
    2. Don't post a question in the thread of another member -- start your own. If you feel it's particularly relevant, provide a link to the other thread. You may include up to 3 links to other URLs in a single post, no more, so only link to the relevant pages.
    I understand pretty well why you did it here, and will not report this post, because in my opinion this rule shall exclude such cases. but on the other hand - as it is written - we (you asking, and I answering) are acting against it.

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