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Probability Simulation

  1. #1
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    01-29-2007
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    Probability Simulation

    hey been working on this forever and can't seem to get it...

    Simulate the profit of the race. Assume the number of spectator is affected by the weather. Probability distribution of weather is as follows:
    Weather Probability
    Clear .5
    Cloudy .3
    Rain .2
     If weather is clear, the number of spectator would be 1,500.
     If weather is cloudy, the number of spectator would be 1,000.
     If weather is rain, the number of spectator would be 300.
    How do I do this in excel?
    I already have a profit model/chart everything but I don't know much about simulations and probablity stuff..thanks

  2. #2
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    03-13-2005
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    6,196
    Quote Originally Posted by anil099
    hey been working on this forever and can't seem to get it...

    Simulate the profit of the race. Assume the number of spectator is affected by the weather. Probability distribution of weather is as follows:
    Weather Probability
    Clear .5
    Cloudy .3
    Rain .2
     If weather is clear, the number of spectator would be 1,500.
     If weather is cloudy, the number of spectator would be 1,000.
     If weather is rain, the number of spectator would be 300.
    How do I do this in excel?
    I already have a profit model/chart everything but I don't know much about simulations and probablity stuff..thanks
    If it's connected with the weather you could follow the bureau and just shake some dice.

    For your numbers,

    take .5 * 1500 and add .3 * 1000 and add .2 * 300

    this will give your probable croud.

    hth
    ---
    Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

  3. #3
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    01-29-2007
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    Monte Carlo Simulation

    Is that what's called a monte carlo simulation? I think I have to do that to get the numbers...any clue as to what that is?

  4. #4
    Forum Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by anil099
    Is that what's called a monte carlo simulation? I think I have to do that to get the numbers...any clue as to what that is?
    not even close

    Explaining the Monte Carlo simulation is a little above my skills, however a Google of 'monte carlo simulation' will provide much information, including a few download trials.

    ---

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