# Probability Simulation

1. ## Probability Simulation

hey been working on this forever and can't seem to get it...

Simulate the profit of the race. Assume the number of spectator is affected by the weather. Probability distribution of weather is as follows:
Weather Probability
Clear .5
Cloudy .3
Rain .2
 If weather is clear, the number of spectator would be 1,500.
 If weather is cloudy, the number of spectator would be 1,000.
 If weather is rain, the number of spectator would be 300.
How do I do this in excel?
I already have a profit model/chart everything but I don't know much about simulations and probablity stuff..thanks

2. Originally Posted by anil099
hey been working on this forever and can't seem to get it...

Simulate the profit of the race. Assume the number of spectator is affected by the weather. Probability distribution of weather is as follows:
Weather Probability
Clear .5
Cloudy .3
Rain .2
 If weather is clear, the number of spectator would be 1,500.
 If weather is cloudy, the number of spectator would be 1,000.
 If weather is rain, the number of spectator would be 300.
How do I do this in excel?
I already have a profit model/chart everything but I don't know much about simulations and probablity stuff..thanks
If it's connected with the weather you could follow the bureau and just shake some dice.

For your numbers,

take .5 * 1500 and add .3 * 1000 and add .2 * 300

this will give your probable croud.

hth
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3. ## Monte Carlo Simulation

Is that what's called a monte carlo simulation? I think I have to do that to get the numbers...any clue as to what that is?

4. Originally Posted by anil099
Is that what's called a monte carlo simulation? I think I have to do that to get the numbers...any clue as to what that is?
not even close

Explaining the Monte Carlo simulation is a little above my skills, however a Google of 'monte carlo simulation' will provide much information, including a few download trials.

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