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Probabilities - determining future values ​​given the previous results

  1. #1
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    Probabilities - determining future values ​​given the previous results

    Hi guys,

    I'm performing a few tests (result may be True or False) in series of 20.
    I noticed that the results are quite homogeneous in the sense that the number of False results is close to the True results. I also noticed that the results are more consistent if I run tests in series of 40 ...
    So I want to know if after I run the first 10 tests, I can predict what will be the next 10, taking in consideration exiting results.
    Do you think there is any method to determine future values ​​given the previous results?


    ThanksTest.xls
    Last edited by vicentiu; 03-25-2014 at 07:52 AM.

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    Re: Probabilities - determining future values ​​given the previous results

    Do you think there is any method to determine future values ​​given the previous results?
    I would venture to say that the entire branch of statistics dealing with binomial variables is about how to predict future values based on the previous results. If you are unfamiliar with binomial experiments and binomial variables, I would suggest you start with a statistics text and/or internet tutorial about binomial variables.

    I've never been very good with this particular subject, but I think it will be easy enough to compute the probability of getting TRUE in the 2nd set of 10 based on the 1st set of 10 (within a margin of error -- from what I understand, 10 trials is very small sample set for a binomial experiment). I do not know about accurately predicting each trial in the 2nd set of 10.
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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