Extracting data from match results

**skavorn** · 01-02-2010, 02:17 PM

I'm desperate to find a formula or way of calculating the effectiveness and profitability of different betting systems, quickly and easily.

If I could see how you do it on one, I'm confident I can just apply the principle to all my different systems I want to test.

For example worksheet "EN1" contains a list of football match results in the english premier league. The number in red contain the best odds in decimal for each result.

One system I want to test has been manually done in worksheet "TRY TO AUTOMATE".

How it works is both sides start with 1000 points. The home team places 7.5% of his points into a kitty (i.e. 7.5% x 1000 = 75 points) and the away team does the same with 4.5% (4.5% x 1000 points = 45 points).

If the home team with, he gets the away teams points, if the away team wins, he gets the home teams points.

If it's a draw, they share the kitty (home teams 75 pts + away teams 45 pts = 120/2 = 60 points back)

This means a draw means the home team gets -15 points, and the away team +15 points.

Let's presume it's a draw.

The new totals are:

Home: 985
Away: 1015

Now if they play again it will be 7.5% of 985 and 4.5% of 1015 etc.

Now I know how to manually work this up, but it would be much quicker and avoid errors if I could automate this for 20 teams over a course of a season.

I'd then like to turn these ratings and work out to see all matches that are (home minus away) +50 or more (i.e. 1100 MINUS 1020) and -50 or less(950 MINUS 1000) to see if I made those bets, would I make a profit?

I've included some of the manual calculation, for a couple of weeks.

Ideally I want a way of going through fixture by fixture, identifying the team, checking their previous points total....and adjusting it after each result.....and then using the supremacy to predict the result and see if it's profitable or not.

I'm desperate, I'd really really appreciate any help you can give me, I've tried everywhere!!!!

Here is a link to the spreadsheet: http://www.mediafire.com/file/wkjtgd...ystem_test.zip

**shg** · 01-02-2010, 02:29 PM

No attachment.

**skavorn** · 01-02-2010, 03:53 PM

http://www.mediafire.com/file/wkjtgd...ystem_test.zip <<<<< I've had to upload it here because the attachment won't work for me as it's over 7mb .xls and over 1mb in a zip (1.4mb)

**skavorn** · 01-03-2010, 08:45 PM

anyone?

**shg** · 01-03-2010, 08:48 PM

If I understand what you want, it's a fair piece of work -- probably several hours to do a rough prototype, and several more to get something useful.

If it's worth it to you, you might try posting in the Commercial Services exchange (which is seen by mods only), and get help for a fee.