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Help with Forecast demand model

  1. #1
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    Join Date
    10-31-2011
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    USA
    MS-Off Ver
    Excel 2003
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    45

    Help with Forecast demand model

    Hey everyone,

    Please see my previous thread for history on this question.

    I am trying to create a model to forecast demand on any given day of the week based on the month of the year based on a given hour of the day.

    The model shows how much expected demand for any given hour is and what the production needs to be to meet the demand. (this i have managed to do)

    the problem i am having is that production is dependent on a few things:
    1) we can only make 9 units at a time (i have factored this into the model)

    2) the number of units can only stay good for 3 hours after which point the product is useless - i am having difficulty factoring this in

    3) we need to minimize over production. - This is where i am having the most problems.because production is only in 9's the over/under production is highly variable and i was wondering if their is a way to either reduce the variability or try and ensure that overproduction is between 1 and 3% - i have included a data table that shows the high level of variability

    4)demand must be met and cannot change

    I have also attached the model I'm working on and any advice or suggestions you have would be much appreciated.

    Cheers
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Last edited by ConneXionLost; 11-15-2011 at 07:32 PM.

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