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Monte Carlo Simulation Help

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    Question Monte Carlo Simulation Help

    Hi everyone,

    I'm having some trouble with running a Monte Carlo simulation. I'm at a complete loss on where I should go next. The situation is a variable supply and demand based on a randbetween function. However, the simulation is representing a business where if demand for services > supply of services, the excess demand for services is carried over to be completed if/when the supply is high enough to accommodate the additional work. I've worked on it for a few hours, trying different formulas but I can't seem to get anywhere. It's an assignment for a class, so I'm not looking to have you all do my homework for me, but just give me an idea or thought on where I should go next.

    I've attached a spreadsheet of what I'm working on.
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Help

    Not sure if this helps or not ...

    I suspect they may be looking for you to use a formula which pulls in a value from the previous row only if it meets a condition.

    Something like

    =IF(X2>0,X3+X2,X3)

    Hope that this helps rather than hinders
    Martin

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    Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Help

    mrice,

    I've tried to do an IF function, but i've run into difficulty with that. I have the corresponding demand from the random number vlookup table, and then a column for a total demand that includes an IF function for if there is excess demand from the previous week. However, i cant seem to get it to consider that the demand might carry over for several weeks if the supply is not high enough

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    Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Help

    Quote Originally Posted by taylorh View Post
    I'm having some trouble with running a Monte Carlo simulation. I'm at a complete loss on where I should go next. The situation is a variable supply and demand based on a randbetween function. However, the simulation is representing a business where if demand for services > supply of services, the excess demand for services is carried over to be completed if/when the supply is high enough to accommodate the additional work.
    I would add another column ("Excess Demand"), say column G. And the formulas become:

    F2: =MIN(C2,E2)
    G2: =E2-F2
    F3: =MIN(C3,E3+G2)
    G3: =E3+G2-F3

    Copy F3:G3 down through F11:G11.
    Last edited by joeu2004; 09-28-2014 at 04:07 PM. Reason: typo: F1->F2, G1->G2, etc

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    Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Help

    That worked, thank you for your help!

    Any advice on how to approach this same problem if the situation were to change and we were dealing with perishable items that can only be held for a week?

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    Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Help

    Quote Originally Posted by taylorh View Post
    Any advice on how to approach this same problem if the situation were to change and we were dealing with perishable items that can only be held for a week?
    I think you'll need to be a lot more specific than that.

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    Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Help

    Okay, sorry, let me be clearer.

    In the situation I described earlier, the excess demand for services was being carried over (for example, a doctor's appointment). In this new situation, the demand for a perishable good is being carried over for one week (say, a loaf of bread). It's different because the loaf of bread can't be carried over indefinitely until there is enough supply. How would the equation for this new situation be different from the initial situation?

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