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Exponential forecasting based on two data points

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    Exponential forecasting based on two data points

    Hello,

    I have a data set (please see attached), where I know the number of aggregated units (N=200) at the end of the forecast (month 36), but I would like to forecast the aggregated number of units in each month before that (months 1 to 35), assuming a ramp up period - so a non-linear exponential curve

    Is it possible to structure this where I can change the following elements in the assumptions tab:?
    1) the duration of the forecast
    2) how aggressive the ramp up period is

    Any advise would be much appreciated.

    Many thanks!
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Last edited by adam_d_john; 04-28-2017 at 03:28 AM. Reason: Added file

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    Re: Exponential forecasting based on two data points

    In B5

    =($AL$4+1)^(1/($AL$3-1))

    IN C5, then drag horizontal

    =($B5^(C3-1))-1
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    Re: Exponential forecasting based on two data points

    Many thanks for this.

    Is it possible to do the same as what you did here, but have 200 as the aggregated amount of units at the end of the period (all the monthly units over the 36-month period need to add up to a total of 200). Sorry, I should have made that more clear.

    Thanks so much for any help you can provide with this.

    Many thanks,
    Adam

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    Re: Exponential forecasting based on two data points

    Is it possible to do the same as what you did here, but have 200 as the aggregated amount of units at the end of the period (all the monthly units over the 36-month period need to add up to a total of 200). Sorry, I should have made that more clear.
    Short but useless answer -- Yes, I'm sure it is possible.

    I am not a financial forecaster, so I am not sure about the math. Assuming kvsrinivasamurthy's spreadsheet has the correct formula for the monthly predictions, I would probably use Solver to get the aggregated amounts to equal 200 https://support.office.com/en-us/art...b-f63e45925040 Add a convenient =SUM(C5:AL5) formula to a cell. Then tell Solver to set that cell to a value of 200 by changing AL4.

    Will that work for you?
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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    Re: Exponential forecasting based on two data points

    Hi Mr Shorty,

    That looks like a good approach. I will download solver and follow your instructions.

    Thanks so much!

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