Consider to input the desired results so that we don't have to second-guess if what we are doing is correct or not. you may look at my signature to upload an eg that is easier to understand.
For instance, tell us what we should expect to see in cell M39. It is for Below Expected, Y2. Y2 expectations in cell M35 shows 2C. and in Grade Table worksheet, 2C is equivalent to 16 points. So is it to find how many of them are below 16 points? There are two instances of grade 1A that is below 16 points. If so, try:
for the expected row, it should be straightforward like what you did? COUNTIF the range is EQUALS to the grade itself.
and for Above Expected row (cell M41), change the signs for the 1st formula from lesser than to Greater than:
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