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Function to solve a probabilty question

  1. #1
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    Function to solve a probabilty question

    I was wondering if anyone knows which function, if any, I can use to work out the following probability scenarios.


    If I know the probability of, let's say, 8 independent events, ABCDEFGH (all different probabilities), is there a function I can use that can give me the probability of x number of these events occurring. The formula for all or none of these occurring is very simple but I am looking for a way that can give me the probability of 4 or 5 or 6 for example for occurring.

    Here's an example incase I wasn't clear.

    USA have a chance of a gold medal in 8 events, ABCDEFGH. The chances of them winning a gold medal in those events are A - 18%, B - 73%, C - 45%, D - 3%, E - 65%, F - 98%, G - 22%, H - 65%.

    What are the chances they win 4 or more gold medals overall?

    Realise this is more of a maths question and answering in a mathematical programme would likely be a lot simpler but I only have access to Excel.

    Thanks for any help

  2. #2
    Forum Expert shg's Avatar
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    Re: Function to solve a probabilty question

    You would need to list the combinations of 8 choose 4, calculate the probability of each, then sum.

    One way (I had to hide most rows to post):

    A
    B
    C
    D
    E
    F
    G
    H
    I
    J
    K
    1
    A
    B
    C
    D
    E
    F
    G
    H
    Prob
    2
    18%
    73%
    45%
    3%
    65%
    98%
    22%
    65%
    34.63283%
    I2: =SUM(I4:I259)
    3
    4
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    A4: =MOD(INT(2*(ROWS($H$4:Me) - 1) / 2 ^ COLUMNS($H$4:Me)), 2)
    5
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1
    I4: {=IF(SUM(A4:H4) = 4, PRODUCT(IF(A4:H4 = 0, 1 - $A$2:$H$2, $A$2:$H$2)), "")}
    18
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    1
    0
    19
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1.07594%
    26
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0
    1
    1
    0
    27
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0
    1
    1
    1
    0.01792%
    28
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    29
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    0
    0
    1
    30
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    0
    1
    0
    31
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    0.00068%
    32
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    33
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    1
    0
    1
    0.11798%
    34
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0.01792%
    35
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    241
    1
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    0
    1
    242
    1
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    1
    0
    243
    1
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    1
    1
    244
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0.00034%
    245
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    246
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    1
    0
    259
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    Entia non sunt multiplicanda sine necessitate

  3. #3
    Forum Expert shg's Avatar
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    Re: Function to solve a probabilty question

    A4: =MOD(INT(2*(ROWS($H$4:Me) - 1) / 2 ^ COLUMNS($H$4:Me)), 2)
    Oops:

    A4: =MOD(INT(2*(ROWS($H$4:A4) - 1) / 2 ^ COLUMNS($H$4:A4)), 2)

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