# Help using Bayes Theorem for Project Threats Analysis

1. ## Help using Bayes Theorem for Project Threats Analysis

Hello. I have not been oil this site for a long while. My career as a Business Analyst took me into the world of education and lectures. I am in the process of publishing a book with J. Ross Publishing. As part of its release I provide readers with an Excel sheet with a few handy tools:
1. An advanced pre-project survey that identifies initial requirements management risks and identifies initial probabilities for success
2. A requirements activities management table that accounts for effort, duration, productivity, and efficiency to determine probabilities of task completion
3. A use case points analysis sheet

I need help with the Bayes pre-project survey and creating a normal curve for the results of the activities management table. Would someone like to donate a few minutes of their time to help me with this urgent deliverable? My publisher is most anxious to receive the finial product so it does not hold up the book. In exchange I would be more than happy to promote this site and the person who helped me when I begin marketing.

Can someone hep me?

2. ## Re: Help using Bayes Theorem for Project Threats Analysis

Someone can probably help you. but an example of what you have so far and what the end product would look like are more likely to gain you a response. At the moment it is a bit unclear. Presumably the sheet will only accomplish something you can currently do by other means, so you should be able to explain the process?

Attach a sample workbook. Make sure there is just enough data to demonstrate your need. Include a BEFORE sheet and an AFTER sheet in the workbook if needed to show the process you're trying to complete or automate. Make sure your desired results are shown, mock them up manually if necessary.

Remember to desensitize the data.

Click on GO ADVANCED and then scroll down to Manage Attachments to open the upload window.

3. ## Re: Help using Bayes Theorem for Project Threats Analysis

Thank you for responding to this thread. I have attached a workbook containing two sheets.

Sheet "Threat_Analysis"
It contains a table which, I hope, makes use of Bayes' Theorem. Would you please check my equations and let me know if it is correct?

Sheet "Project_Survey"
In this sheet, I am writing three tables for project managers and business analysts to assess the risk of a project before the planning begins. I want to evaluate the results in the following manner.

IF the SUM of the EDF Score is BETWEEN 0 AND 24 return "Low Risk"
IF the SUM of the EDF Score is BETWEEN 25 AND 49 return "Moderate Risk" ELSE return "High Risk"

Sadly Excel does not have a BETWEEN (SQL is so much easier), so I have been trying to nest IF(AND()SUM(), but I can't seem to make it work. Would you also let me know where I messed up?

=IF(AND(SUM(tblexternaldependencies[EDF Score])=>0,SUM(tblexternaldependencies[EDF Score])<=24),"Low Risk","Moderate Risk"),IF(AND(SUM(tblexternaldependencies[EDF Score])=>25,SUM(tblexternaldependencies[EDF Score])<=49),"Moderate Risk","High Risk")

4. ## Re: Help using Bayes Theorem for Project Threats Analysis

Maybe

Formula:
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5. ## Re: Help using Bayes Theorem for Project Threats Analysis

Note the AND is redundant in the second part as you can just say <=49

What if the value is negative?

6. “Sadly Excel does not have a BETWEEN (SQL is so much easier), so I have been trying to nest IF(AND()SUM(), but I can't seem to make it work.”

If you feel limited without the BETWEEN function, it would be fairly straightforward to write a User-Defined Function in Excel called BETWEEN that you can save in this file or on your computer to access from other Excel files.

7. ## Re: Help using Bayes Theorem for Project Threats Analysis

You've already tested for the score being less than 25 in the first IF, so you don't need to test for it being greater than 25 in the second IF, because if Excel gets to that part then it must be >= 25.

Hope this helps.

Pete

EDIT: I see that Trevor has picked that up in his second post.

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